How it works · Bet4kast

Bookmakers employ analysts, use huge amounts of data and adjust their prices as money and team news come in. When you combine the prices of many bookmakers, you get one of the most accurate public forecasts of a match there is. That's our starting point.

1. Remove the bookmaker's margin

If a bookmaker offers 1.80 on Team A, 3.60 on the draw and 4.50 on Team B, those prices add up to more than 100% (about 105%). The extra 5% is the bookmaker's profit. We take it out, so the chances add up to exactly 100%.

2. Combine many bookmakers

We average the fair chances across all the bookmakers that priced the match. Markets known to be the most accurate, such as Pinnacle and betting exchanges, count a little more.

3. Give a plain verdict

Strong pick: one result is at least 70% likely (at least 78% in sports with no draw).
Double chance: no clear favourite, but "team or draw" is at least 80% likely.
Small edge: the favourite is 55–69% likely (65–77% with no draw).
Don't bet: everything else. Too close to call.

4. Check every verdict

At kick-off the verdict is frozen. After the match we record the score and mark the pick won or lost, automatically, on the public track record.

What we can't do

Nobody can predict sport with 99% accuracy. Upsets happen every weekend: a 75% favourite still loses one match in four. Bookmakers keep a margin, so betting is a losing game for most people over time. Use Bet4kast to bet less and more carefully, not more.

Fair odds